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Water, population and conflict in the Middle East

Dr. A. Yahya Hassan

When the war begins plans, logic has support in politics, as I see it, these days, the nations of the Middle East (including Israel) is now engaged in the task of self-destruction, unless … .. (The author).

Water is vital resources needed for all aspects of human survival and the ecosystem and health. In recent years, have thrown new alarms about the growing water scarcity and pollution and the risk of disability to meet water rapidly growing populations. (Postel 1992, Gleick 1993, Engleman and LeRoy 1993, Yahya 1994, 2010).

As human population increases in the world, our demand for fresh water increases dramatically. However, there are large disparities between supply and demand. In addition, mismanagement the environment has seriously degraded the quality of water available, many are polluted, misdirected, or simply wasted.

In general, large variations in the current water availability per capita of each continent of Oceania show that more than 70,000 cubic meters per person per year (m3/persona/año) Americans use more than 1,600 cubic meters per person per year, while the average in Europe is m3/persona/año 725. For the whole of Africa under m3/persona/año 7000, while Asia is just m3/persona/año 3400. some countries of North Africa and the Middle less than 100 m3/persona/año reflecting the lack of availability of physical resources, large populations, and water systems underdeveloped supply. (Gleick 1993).

The United States and Mexico are among the many countries of the Americas that share water resources. The water formed in flow or whether a country is essential for the maintenance in another. For example, Syria is the most unhappy with the draft AMP Turkey, which stalled plans for the Euphrates and Tigris which flows downstream from Syria and Iraq. Meanwhile, Sudanese controls water flow into the Aswan Dam in Egypt High River Nile Water Forum to facilitate discussion on responsible management, but in the final bill is for water users to decide how to use water available for equitable and efficient.

This article discusses briefly the population and the scarcity of water, historical context, the need water needs for people in the Middle East, and as water as a precious and limited resource in the region has become a trigger potential serious national conflicts in the region. Finally some conclusions are drawn.

Water and Population: In terms of population, in most of human history, the world's population has grown gradually. It took thousands of years for world population to reach one billion people (Around 1800). Then, in little more than a century, the population increased to two billion dollars (in 1960), and three billion in 1980. In twenty years, between 1980 and 2000 the world population has doubled from 3000 to 6000 million.

In terms of water, the history of the ancient Egyptians and Sumerians built irrigation systems developed on the Nile and the Tigris and the Euphrates. The necessary planning, the central government and cooperation – this was the need to be main stimulus for the advancement of civilization. Later, Nabataean, who lived in southern Israel and Jordan, built a large tank network and underground tanks to capture rainfall and flash floods spill in the Negev Desert. The desert city of Petra, an example of what this civilization achieved.

For almost 200 years, the average amount of water available per person (for example, in 1850) was about 43,000 cubic meters per year. In 1990 this figure had fallen to 9,000 cubic meters per year, simply by increasing world population. When measured this way, problems of distribution space and time became even more obvious reasons, such as low rainfall and high evaporation and erratic growth. population in the rapid development of resources water is to reduce per capita consumption. The Middle East has rivers that come from outside and short seasonal or perennial streams.

Conflict and water are closely linked and in any time in history. According to previous data, water resources are not evenly distributed worldwide, Middle East is no different. Since the creation of Israel, the factor of water has worsened and has played an important role in the domination designs and land border. There is no doubt that water has been hidden agenda of the conflicts of the past and a major obstacle to achieving a lasting solution and ultimately in the region. Conflicts over water is not only between Israel and its neighbors, but also among Arab countries.

Most resources are largely controlled by Israel. Syria has lost its important area of 66 square kilometers on the Golan Heights in the 1967 war. Although all countries demand for water resources, these resources are almost finished. In the past few million people reside in the region depended on the water. Today the population was large enough to provide governments ration water to citizens.

Turkey, NATO's southern stronghold, to Oman, research on the countries of the Indian Ocean Middle East are worrying about how to meet the needs of its growing industries, or to find water for additional million born each year, not to mention agriculture, the main cause of depletion of water resources in the region.

All these nations depends on three major river systems or large underground aquifers, some of which are "fossil water" that can not be renewed.

Take the largest water source in the region, the Nile basin countries Its has one of the highest rates of population growth probably will double in less than thirty years, but provides the water of the Nile is only when Moses was found in the reeds.

population Jordan has more than doubled, rising from 1.5 million in 1955 to 4,000,000 in 1990 and is expected to double again by 2010. Availability of water per year per capita in 1990 was about 327,673 cubic meters below the bottom of the crisis.

Israel expects the population to grow $ 4.7 million in 1990 to nearly $ 8 million in 2025. At the moment the Palestinians in the West Bank – because of their higher birth rates, is likely to reach just under seven million, two people share the same water now say the two are not enough.

Libya Population 4.5 million in 1990 should increase to 12.9 million in 2025 and oil revenues allowed the government to increase dependence on desalination, but wasted – or lost and enormous resources into a white elephant, the great man to mine fossil water from the river in the south.

Egypt 58 million in 1990 should reach 101 million in 2025 and already close to the water shortage: its per capita availability of 1017

In the case of renewable fresh water is not universal rule on it because there is no international consensus on how to define and measure renewable fresh water.

* The list of countries with water shortages in 1955 there were seven, including three countries in the Middle East: Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.

In 1990, 13 of them were added eight Middle East: Algeria, Israel and Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, UAE and Yemen.

UN Study plans to add 10 more countries in 2025, seven of them are from the Middle East: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria. This means that by 2025 the eighteen countries of the region will suffer water shortages.

Israel uses underground water sources in the West Bank, which are the main sources of water for the metropolitan area of Tel Aviv, for example.

The scarcity Water in the Middle East: From Turkey, NATO's southern stronghold, to Oman, overlooking the Indian Ocean, the Middle East are worrying about how to meet the needs of its growing industries and finding drinking water for millions born each year, not to mention agriculture, the main cause of depletion of water resources in the region. Country in the Middle East, in fact, suffering from a scarcity, and scarcity Water is used as a political issue and a lever.

All these nations depend on three major river systems and major aquifers underground, some of which are "fossil water" that can not be renewed.

Take the largest water source in the region, the Nile aquifer Nubia in North Africa were full when the water streamed beneath the surface of the earth in recent years of geological history. When we speak Fossil water in an aquifer, there is no water trapped since the ice age and there is no certainty how long it would take to rebuild, so sure the conclusion that mining water is only a temporary solution. At the same time, the nations of the Nile Basin is one of the highest rates of growth population probably will double in less than thirty years, but the amount of water the Nile brings is no more than when Moses was found in the reeds.

Despite all the natural resources of water are filled through the natural hydrological cycle, the turnover rate varies from days to millennia. The index Rotation of the streams are about 18 days – that must be renewed every drop out – whereas the large lakes and deep aquifers, which can last a thousand years.

In general, a country with less than 1,700 cubic meters per capita is considered as known water scarcity, while less than 1,000 cubic meters considering the water shortage. The Arabian Peninsula is poor in surface waters, but has reservations over other nations in the region of water groundwater, these reserves are withdrawn faster than the rate of natural recharge, however. Conflicts and disputes over water allocation have prevented improvements in the use of surface waters. saltwater intrusion and contamination by pesticides and industrial and human waste affect water quality.

In the case of renewable fresh water is not uniform in the universal, because there is no consensus internationally on how to define and measure the renewable fresh water. The list of countries with water shortages in 1955 were seven, including three countries in the Middle East: Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait in 1990 have added 13 including eight in the Middle East. Algeria, Israel / Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, UAE and Yemen. Study of the UN plans to add 10 more countries by 2025 seven of which come from the Middle East: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria. This means that by 2025 the eighteen countries of the region will suffer shortages water.

The annual renewable freshwater available per person in the list of available in 1990 cubic meters higher than it was in Iraq, Iraq, 18 441 (1955) to 6029 (1990) and 2356 (2025) cubic feet, the lowest was in Kuwait 147, 23 and 9, and Jordan, 906, 327 121 cubic meters in 1955, 1990 and 2025, respectively. However, the projected water shortages by 2025 Qatar 57, Bahrain 68, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, 113 152 UAE and 176 cubic meters, and most countries in Iraq in 2356 were four in 2186 Turkey, Lebanon and Sudan 1.993 1.113 cubic meters available person.

Water remains a cardinal problem in the Middle East. When drought is not lost in the region. The religious people pray to God to bring rain. It is urgent to solve water scarcity in the Middle East, because I believe that the conflict in the supply of water is a vital factor in any conflict in the Middle East. It is well known that the distribution of water resources in the basin of the Jordan: Israel, Palestine and Syria is also provided. The water crisis is not limited, but in Israel, Palestine and Jordan. The water sources in nearly all cases, with few exceptions the aquifer, crosses the border and in some cases is also high as nine sovereign states within the basin. In general, a country with less than 1,700 cubic meters per capita is considered the shortage known water, while less than 1,000 cubic meters is considered the water shortage.

Water and conflict: Adel Darwish in his research on the subject, shows how it could lead to a war or wars in the near future (1994.2003). Water and Conflict in the Middle East are closely related, but to solve the problem, first, the chicken or the egg argument must be resolved. Since prehistoric times, the Arabs the desert, fought constantly pastures and wells in the lands where water and pasture have been few shots. The water was like for God, source of life, therefore, the source of conflict in life. tradition is that Israel occupies Arab land of Palestine, where the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, many peace talks was break is based on the source of all waters.

In recent history, the water war between Israel and Syria began in the Conference Peace of Paris of 1919, it was generally agreed that Britain should receive the mandate of Palestine, and France for Syria and Lebanon, but the borders of Palestine and Syria have remained undecided, mainly because of disagreement between Britain and France on the parameters of development of the acquisition. Documents show that Chaim Weizmann, 19 September 1919 is intended to limit decided by the modern British authorities "for the peace conference, with the headquarters of Winston Churchill a report written by a scholar on the last Jew, Aaron Aaronsohn, which is the main concern was the economic development of the new country "(Goldstone, 2007) Weizmann wrote: .. "I said that in discussions and negotiations with the French government is pursuing in relation to the northern border, from the perspective Palestine determining factor is the issue of water supply. "Weizmann continued to insist on this," I have great pleasure to include a statement on the subject when the subject is treated with care and in my opinion, convincing. "The northern border of Palestine spirit Weizmann was included all the Bekaa valley, where with the help of an engineer named Sir John Benton projects making the Litani River, such as the French in Lebanon.

In his book, maps Aaronsohn: The story is not told of the man who has created peace in the Middle East, the author Patricia Goldstone putting his finger on the cause of conflicts in the Middle East on water said that Prime Minister David Lloyd George and General Allenby, commander of the British Egyptian Expeditionary Force in September 1919, "proposes the redefinition of the border north to south, water extraction … … … in exchange for a promise that France would forget the Great Syria. "Goldstone said that after two weeks," Allenby evacuated their troops in northern Galilee, leaving all the water resources and Jewish settlements in the hands of the French. "What happened then," without the protection British regulation of Metulla, Kfar Gilad, Tel Hai, and became prey to the flashpoint Arab marauders and stayed ever since. "Advised" to leave the colonies in the north because they are indefensible, David Ben Gurion, in the process of metamorphosis Hashomer a regular militia, he withstand stress. "

Goldstone shows that on 1 March 1920, Tel Jai has fallen into the hands of the Syrians, and two days later, the Jews evacuated Metulla and Kfar Gelade. The Hashemite Faisal was proclaimed king of Greater Syria, which in his lexicon integrated Lebanon, Transjordan, and "southern Syria" which means Palestine. Chaim Weizmann immediately left San Remo, Italy, on April 25, the British and French divided Syria into two parts, the north (Syria) and South (Palestine and Iraq) to France, taking Britain to Syria and the rest. (P.288)

Now, Lebanon and Syria became under the French government on 21 June 1920, the French proposed a compromise that includes all settlements within the boundaries of Palestine, but attributed it to Syria almost all the water resources. The agreement, finalized by the French and British in March 1923, all the Litani River and the headwaters of the Jordan River and the source of the Hasbani would Aaiun Lebanon before flowing to Palestine. According to the borders, however, the Banias springs that come and the flow of hundreds of feet in Syria before entering Palestine. The plan was confirmed in March 1923 to prevent the Jews of these resources, despite opposition Weizmann and other Jews. This was the point that started the conflict over water and continues to this day.

In May 1948, British troops left Palestine and the State Israel was created. In the war of independence against Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, Israel lost three tiny areas for Arab Givat Banias, its access to the Terms of Banias, the city of Hama, including a small triangular area near the Yarmuk-to bind to Tibrias the lake, and another patch of Lake Hula, the Daughters of Jacob Bridge has been the target of the planners of Israel as the site of major restoration project of water Israeli.

Syria, which the territory at the time, decided to withdraw all these places, except Hama-Givat Banias and the rest of the earth have transformed into a demilitarized zone (DMZ) in the DMZ area is about one hundred square kilometers, sovereignty will be negotiated in the future, that future has not arrived yet.

While oil has always been considered the traditional causes of conflict in the Middle East the past and present. Since the first oil well were spilled in the Gulf of Bahrain in 1932, countries have disputed borders in the hope that the ownership of a plot of desert sand or a bank might give them access to new wealth. Neither. Now, most borders have been set, oil fields and reserves assigned to calculate with precision – unlike water, they are often still unknown. The water is taken care of oil as the most likely cause of the conflict in the Middle East.

The rise of oil in the Gulf of Mexico and other states of the Middle East, desalination has become an industry. In 1990, more than 13 million cubic meters occur every day in the world with 7,500 plants, but this represents just under a thousand thousandth part of the consumption of fresh water per day.

Water a gun was deployed at the beginning of Arab-Israeli conflict. In the 1960 cross-border raids in the system of water supply machines, "he delirious between Israel, Syria and Jordan, culminating in the Six Day War in 1967. In 1964, an Arab summit conference in Amman decided to divert the headwaters the Jordan – in effect, to deprive Israel of its main food.

Before the Arab Summit of 1964, Israel has built a pumping station giant on the west coast of the Sea of Galilee and began to suction the water piping systems and channels known as the national water company, although the way to the Negev Desert. In 1990, the company was diverting 440 million cube meters of water per year used to go through Jordan to the end to the Dead Sea. Accordingly, the Dead Sea has fallen by a drought killed two lakes.

To implement Resolution 1964 of the Arab summit, began work on the border with Syria and Jordan, despite a warning from Israel that would be considered a violation of national laws. And if all works have conducted in Arabic or neutral ground, battles, air strikes and artillery duels in the past. Ultimately, the Israeli air strikes deep in Syria forced Arabs to end his regime to destroy the site of the proposed dam on the River Yarmuk. If the two shots of Al and Al-Makhiyabat Maquarin been completed, would be private Israel 550 million cubic meters per year. (In fact, Jordan and Syria have been proposed to build a new dam dam upstream unit, which connects the agreement World Bank funding with Israel, which has never been achieved.)

The side of Israel, Ariel Sharon, Defense Minister of the end of Israeli I had no doubt that these skirmishes is. "People generally regard 5 June 1967, on Six-Day War began, he said." This is the official date. But in fact, started two years before, the day Israel decided to act against the diversion of the Jordan.

The war erupted in conflict in 1973. Sadat, Egyptian president wanted to force Israel to the conference table and conclude a lasting peace. With the help of Henry Kissinger, a peace treaty with Israel was achieved in 1979, after meeting in Camp David agreements in 1978.

When President Anwar Sadat signed the peace treaty with Israel in 1979, says Egypt not wage war again, except to protect its water resources. King Hussein of Jordan said he never go to war with Israel again except on Water and unrelated Nation Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali warned bluntly that the next war in the region will be in the water.

As the various committees between Egypt and Israel met to fine-tune the treaty, delegates of Israel has suggested that there should be cooperation in water projects. In particular, we wanted a 1 percent flow of the Nile gives about 800 million cubic meters which was diverted into a pipeline that extends from the Peace Canal takes water ismael Delta canal is the Sinai.

President Sadat was seen as an alternative to the West Bank and Jordan aquifers, which reduces the dependence of Israel on Palestinian self-rule territories considered areas. We also saw the project as a basis for regional cooperation thereafter extend the pipeline to Lebanon or Jordan in the latter stages.

Turkey took the opportunity to demonstrate their ability to control the flow water to their neighbors, and provoked an extraordinary alliance between enemies. In January 1990 he was arrested the flow of the Euphrates. Officially, the interruption was fill the huge lake in front of the new Ataturk dam, in fact, was a demonstration of what could happen if Syrian President Hafez al-Assad continued support Kurdish rebels in southeastern Anatolia. Stop the flow of the Euphrates, Syria has also made water shortages in Iraq. Turkish planners thought does not matter, as Syria and Iraq were sworn enemies.

Given this common threat, but they forgot the old antagonisms instantly, Syria and the Iraqi media in the United States denouncing Turkey, and military leaders of both countries have drawn up plans for military retaliation. After three weeks, the river was allowed to circulate, as usual, if the closure was scheduled to last a month.

If an agreement is concluded between Jordan and Israel, but without an agreement between Syria and Israel in ten years or whether Syria could face an alliance of Jordan, the Palestinians and Israel to maximize participation of scarce water resources. As the old enemy of Iraq, might side with Syria against Turkey's demand for more water, as a alliance even with the support of Israel, just focus on the law of a response out to a current operating state of geography at the expense of other coastal States.

Two views of water and peace: The optimists believe that if a comprehensive peace is achieved in the Middle East Arab oil money and Israeli technology can combine to help reduce wastage of irrigation water and rival – from agriculture swallows 85 percent of water in the Middle East, while the world average is 69 percent and in countries like Sudan, the figure is 99 percent – and also find an energy affordable desalination of sea water nuclear, solar or electric (eg red Dead Sea Canal project, the Pan-African electricity network between Indingo the nine Nile riparian states, etc.).

But the pessimists outnumber optimists, of them are regional state, politics and diplomats and technocrats of the world too. Salama Elias, professor of water resources at the University of Amman, has repeatedly warned that “ if the multilateral talks on water does not get a more equitable distribution of water, sometime between 1995 and 2005, there is a high probability that Israel, Jordan and the West Bank face the progressive worsening water shortages there will be conflict.''

Several conclusions need to do before the end of this article:

1. Almost always a water crisis in the Middle East. population growth always extended the limits of scarce resources, it used to be water. the existing settlements in history. also be threatened by climate change. The problem was identified successfully by the ingenuity and adaptation.
2. Whenever the conditions of other allowed, provided the water supply has expanded to meet the needs of the population. During the British mandate period, the experts were convinced that the land between the Jordan and the sea could not easily support a large increase in the population.
3. As increasing population, living standards have increased, however. If there is agreement between Israel and the Palestinians and neighboring Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, the region is largely predictions need to Palestine (Israel and Palestinian territories) will remain without farmland and water soon.
4. All wars of Israel be for water supply in 1967, 1973 and Lebanon1979 and 1982, where the latter two were placed under the command of Ariel Sharon, the river mantra was, Again, a major strategic objective during the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon through a coalition government that Shimon Peres, who began his political life as an assistant to Ben-Gurion, was a member.
5. In the absence of Arab unity that can not be seen in the near future the water will more projects for negotiation, taking the form of one-sided negotiation. The lack of leadership of Pan-Arabism as Jamal Abdul-Nasser and Saddam Hussein, contributes to these negotiations.
6. For the disappearance of the Zionist ideal to train children of Israel from Nile to Euphrates, and the urgent need for a commitment to using modern technologies springs with desalination projects.
7. Globally, competition for increasingly scarce water increases the likelihood of international conflict (Both economic and military) in quality programs and the diversion of water. More than 200 river systems cross national boundaries. Thirteen major rivers and lakes are shared by 100 countries.

1. What is recommended, however, is the necessity of purely technological solutions to the shortage water, although it may have a limited effect. desalinated sea water is now less than 1 percent of the people on water consumption. It is likely that this increase, but it is possible that in rich countries to pay the current cost of oil producing states of western Asia without carry water long distances. Movement of fresh water in large plastic bags taken from ships has been of value in the Mediterranean East, but as desalination, is of little aid to landlocked countries or populations and limited land.
2. The approach Crescentologism need to get to cultural knowledge, understanding, appreciation, and ultimately compromise the benefit of all, where the interaction recognition and respect among nations and cultures is the final phase of life in peace, without rows of power domination or slavery or exploitation. This last point is described in the book's author: Crescentologism, the theory of the Moon 2010.

10. The water remains the main source of conflict in the Middle East unless it can be neutralized in a relatively simple engineering. This requires political will to achieve this is essentially a pragmatic solution. Otherwise, the Middle East will remain blurred. (4589 words) www.hasanyahya.com

The references can be found in the original document.

About the Author

Dr. Hasan A. Yahya is an American writer, scholar, and professor of Sociology. He’s the honorary member of the Arab & Muslim Writers Union-A&MWU). Has a 2 Ph.d degrees from Michigan State University. He published 50 books plus (38 Arabic and 12 English), and 230 plus articles on sociology, religion, psychology, politics, poetry, and short stories. Philosophically, his writings concern logic, justice and human rights. Dr. Yahya is the author of Crescentologism: The Moon Theory,  and Islam Finds its Way, on Amazon. He’s an expert on Race Relations and Arab and Islamic cultures, and was invited to several TV shows and international conferences on religion, world affairs and future strategic planning. www.dryahyatv.com

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